Explore the Latest National Real Estate Insights

National Real Estate Insights – March 2024 – Compass

A long-term view of the national median house sales price since 1990. Due to seasonal supply and demand factors, median sales prices usually peak in spring. 

Annual median house prices for the 4 U.S. regions: Prices & appreciation rates vary due to local conditions, but because of national macroeconomic factors, regional trends up and down are usually quite similar over the longer term. 

A broad illustration of the 12-month-rolling, average number of new listings coming on market: After falling for 18 months, the trend line is finally turning up again. On a single-month basis, new-listing numbers typically climb rapidly through spring. 

A broad, 12-month-rolling illustration of how quickly listings have sold since 2011: Not as fast currently as during the (overheated) pandemic boom, but very fast by long-term standards. On a single-month basis – not illustrated here – days on market fluctuate by month, usually hitting their lowest readings in spring.

The number of sales is rebounding from its usual mid-winter low, and will continue to increase through spring, but interest rates and the extremely low inventory of listings for sale have caused a large decline in sales volumes.

The percentage of homes selling all-cash has continued to rise. First-time homebuyers have faced increasing competition from investors and more affluent homebuyers with the ability to purchase without a loan.

Months-supply-of-inventory compares buyer demand to the supply of homes for sale: The lower the reading, the more competitive the market. The current reading of 2.9 months, though higher than during the pandemic boom, is very low by pre-pandemic norms – mostly due to the inadequate supply of listings. 

After the large decline from late October, mortgage interest rates have been fluctuating within a relatively narrow range of values in 2024.

For decades, the Federal Reserve Bank has played a huge role in financial and housing markets via the setting of their benchmark rate. Inflation has plunged since mid-2022, but remains higher than the Fed likes, and this has kept the Fed in a holding pattern since August. Rate reductions are still expected to occur in 2024.

Stock markets hit new highs in March, an enormous factor – especially for more affluent households – in wealth, consumer confidence, and the ability to pay all-cash for homes. 

The new U.S. Census map illustrating county population changes 7/1/22 to 7/1/23: The magnitude of changes – mostly due to migration – has declined from 2020-2022, but remains a major factor in many local markets.

National homeowner's insurance rates have increased 23% in the last 14 months, with some communities seeing much larger hikes – to crisis points. The main factor: In inflation-adjusted dollars, the average, annual cost of "billion-dollar-plus" natural disasters has gone from $21.5 billion in the 1980's to over $144 billion in 2021-2023. Below is the NOAA billion-dollar natural disaster map for 2023.   

Amid various economic ups and downs, the prevailing market dynamic since the great recession has been too few homes available to buy. Click on the image below for our full review of the major factors at play. 

Please let me know if I can ever be of assistance, in any way, 
to you or your family, friends and colleagues.

Vincent Kessel

Real Estate Advisor
M: 561.693.9291
vincent.kessel@compass.com

National and regional statistics are generalities, essentially summaries generated by thousands of unique, individual listings and sales occurring across different market segments. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, and last period data should be considered preliminary estimates which may be revised in future updates. Different analytics programs sometimes define standard statistics differently – such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory":  What is most meaningful are not specific numeric calculations but the trends they illustrate. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors, and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate, and how these analyses apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Compass is a licensed real estate broker. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.

Explore the Latest National Real Estate Insights – March 2024

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